All the commotion over the world economy, politics, and geo-politics is really just noise when it comes to Bitcoin. The bull market is very much intact, and the king of the cryptocurrencies is moving into a final, potentially explosive stage.
The general trend is up
It might be argued that certainly in the United States, and in the global economy, the US stock market is the yardstick of the direction in which the biggest world economy is going. Yes, economic, political, and world conflict events are going to provide shocks and tremors to the market, but with global liquidity on the rise, it would seem that at least into the end of 2025 the general directional trend is up.
S&P 500 reentering all-time high territory
Source: TradingView
It’s when one looks at the monthly chart for the S&P 500 that the longer term picture comes fully into focus. What did the Trump tariffs do? They allowed a highly overbought stock index to reset with a 21% dip to a strong support level. Just look at the size of the wick on that monthly candle that tested 4,800 points. That this dip was so rapidly bought up is testament not only to the confidence that the market has in the economy going forward, but also in the knowledge that the steamroller of increasing global liquidity is not likely to falter any time soon.
The big test is fast approaching, where resistance awaits at around 6,000 points. Once/if this is broken, and consolidation takes place above, the S&P 500 can resume the general pattern that started in early 2023 of fairly consistent new all-time highs.
Finally, looking at the monthly Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart it can be seen that the indicators are crossing back up, signifying big upside price momentum is about to arrive.
$BTC retests support after wedge breakout
Source: TradingView
Before moving on to the long-term chart for $BTC a quick drill down into the very short term 4-hour chart shows that the price did in fact eventually break out of the falling wedge. It can be seen that now the price could be coming back to test the top of the wedge, which could take it back to the $104,000 support, with a potential bounce, either from there, or the current $105,000 level.
Monthly chart suggests bullish continuation for $BTC
Source: TradingView
The monthly chart shows the current bull market in all its glory. Free of the day-to-day noise, it shows that the price is heading into what could be the third big wave higher. The monthly candle close for May is a very good one, with the top of the candle closing nicely above the previous candle body highs. There is the possibility that the price could still come back down to $102,000 and confirm those candle body tops as support.
Towards the bottom of the chart, the Stochastic RSI is showing a bullish cross up of the indicators, and at the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index reveals that the indicator line is on top of the yellow moving average line. All is set for a continuation of this rise.
Those who have the knowledge and fortitude to ignore the sometimes wild short to medium term price action will be the ones who come out ahead in this bull market. Ignore the very high time frame at your peril.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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